I’m Thibault Lafargue, an independent trader turned researcher. In 2021 I started building NFT trading bots, which grew into a $1M trading business and taught me more about market microstructure than about NFTs. Since early 2026 I run a research program on Polymarket, measuring whether prediction market prices are actually calibrated, and publishing the numbers either way. The code behind that work lives at github.com/tlafargue/polymarket-research. This blog is where the results go, including the ones that don’t flatter me. You can reach me at research@lafargue.cc.